Newly-shared Sask. COVID-19 modelling from June projected this fall’s surge of ICU patients – CBC

The four-month old projection was shared publicly for the first time last week

Oct 26, 2021

Modelling provided to the Saskatchewan government last June by the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) projected the fourth-wave COVID-19 hospitalization surge that is being experienced now in the province.

The four-month old projection was shared publicly for the first time last Thursday during a virtual town hall meant for SHA physicians. Recordings of those town halls, along with the slides shared, are typically published online the next day.

“They are remarkably accurate,” said John Froh, a deputy chief medical officer at the SHA, of the predictions contained in the summer modelling.

Titled “Risk of fall surge” and dated June 15, 2021, the modelling projected the number of people who would be infected with COVID-19 and hospitalized in intensive care units (“ICU Census”) on a daily basis from June to the end of 2021.

By mid-October, around 75 COVID-19 patients would be in ICU, the modelling suggested. In reality, 78 infected ICU patients were announced that day.

Read more: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/covid-19-modelling-1.6224092