New COVID-19 modelling projects continued downward trend for Alberta – CBC

Turnaround linked to restrictions introduced in September

Oct 28, 2021

New modelling projects daily COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions in Alberta will continue to decline if the province stays the course.

University of Victoria physics professor and member of British Columbia’s independent COVID-19 modelling group Dean Karlen says it’s been a rapid drop — around three or four per cent per day, faster than in B.C.

“Frankly, [I’m] really surprised how fast that turned around,” he said. “That’s remarkable.”

The analysis — the 11th such release from the group — shows infections were likely at their worst through the peak of the fourth wave based on hospitalization numbers that nearly collapsed Alberta’s health-care system.

The turnaround date came in mid-September when the province implemented sweeping new public health measures, including a proof-of-vaccination program.

“In our previous report three weeks ago, we just saw that turnaround and now it’s absolutely clear,” Karlen said.

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