Modelling shows B.C. likely undercounting death toll from COVID-19 – CBC

Significant increase in excess mortality since 2020 in province likely due to COVID, experts say

Feb 14, 2022

British Columbia could be significantly undercounting its COVID-19 death toll, according to modelling data from a national project.

The project, led by University of Toronto professor Dr. Tara Moriarty, looks at the risk of future severe outcomes from COVID-19 for every province and region in Canada.

It has been tracking various metrics, including excess mortality resulting from COVID-19 and the effect of vaccines in reducing deaths and cases.

One of the metrics tracked is the difference between expected deaths and reported deaths — the former an estimate by epidemiologists based on infection rates, vaccination rates and fatality rates. Reported deaths reflect the official government count.

According to that estimate, B.C. should have seen more than 980 deaths from Dec. 18 to Feb. 11 compared to just over 340 cases that were reported officially.

“Outside of Quebec, which captures almost all of its COVID deaths, the rest of Canada in general historically under-reports, under-detects, about 50 per cent of its COVID deaths,” Moriarty told CBC News.

Read more: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/modelling-bc-excess-mortality-1.6350460